What a Dynasty First-Round Pick Actually Costs: 28,168 Real Trades
By Elliot — Founder, Dynasty Dealer · Data study · 2026-06-11
Data study: every two-team trade in 45 days where one side was exactly one 2026 first. An early first costs 62% more than a late one, half the market is picks-for-picks, and the player-for-first board shows what each slot really buys.
What each slot bucket costs (28,168 lone-first trades, 45 days)
| Pick | Sample | Package paid |
|---|---|---|
| Early 1st (top third) | 6,906 trades | median 9,592 |
| Mid 1st (middle third) | 9,006 trades | median 8,040 |
| Late 1st (bottom third) | 8,471 trades | median 5,936 |
The player-for-first board (straight-up swaps)
| Player | Times swapped for a 2026 1st | Typical slot |
|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze (WR) | 80 swaps | early-mid 1st |
| Marvin Harrison (WR) | 93 swaps | mid 1st |
| A.J. Brown (WR) | 94 swaps | mid 1st |
| Jaylen Waddle (WR) | 100 swaps | mid 1st |
| Derrick Henry (RB) | 85 swaps | late 1st |
| Josh Downs (WR) | 133 swaps | late 1st |
How much is a dynasty first-round rookie pick worth?
It depends on the slot. Across 28,168 real trades (45-day window, mid-2026), the median package paid for an early 2026 first was 9,592 in market value, a mid first 8,040, and a late first 5,936 — a 62% spread inside the same round. A late first trades straight up for a Josh Downs- or DJ Moore-priced veteran.
What do managers usually give up for a 1st?
Mostly other picks: 49% of lone-first trades were picks-for-picks, 28% a player plus picks, 18% one player straight up. The standard quotes: two 2nds buys a late first; a proven starter plus a future first buys an early one.