KeepTradeCut vs Real Trade Data: We Tested the Crowd Against the Market
By Elliot — Founder, Dynasty Dealer · Data study · 2026-06-11
Data study: we matched KTC top-200 superflex values to prices derived from 671,810 real Sleeper trades. The crowd is good (~0.98 correlation, format-matched) - but it under-prices proven veteran QBs and front-runs rookie-hype WRs. Full divergence tables and methodology inside.
Key findings
- ~0.98 rank correlation between KTC top-200 and real trade prices (199/200 matched, format-matched benchmark; mean gap ~9 rank spots).
- The market pays MORE than the crowd says for proven veteran QBs — seven of the nine biggest robust gaps are quarterbacks.
- The crowd rates hype-stage young WRs higher than their actual trade prices.
- A naive comparison flags veteran TEs too, but that is mostly a league-format artifact (47.6% of our trades come from TE-premium leagues) — documented in the study.
- Internally, our own community votes push depth players up as much as +43% while the elite tier barely moves (max −2.1%) — which is why votes are a capped, disclosed adjustment.
Market pays more than the crowd says
| Player | Format-matched crowd | Real-trade market | Δ rank (+0.5 / +1.0 TEP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy (QB) | Crowd #176 | Market #130 | +46 / +50 |
| Dak Prescott (QB) | Crowd #72 | Market #48 | +24 / +24 |
| Matthew Stafford (QB) | Crowd #106 | Market #85 | +21 / +24 |
| C.J. Stroud (QB) | Crowd #77 | Market #57 | +20 / +21 |
| Baker Mayfield (QB) | Crowd #80 | Market #60 | +20 / +20 |
| Travis Hunter (WR) | Crowd #125 | Market #103 | +22 / +22 |
Crowd rates higher than the market pays
| Player | Format-matched crowd | Real-trade market | Δ rank (+0.5 / +1.0 TEP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Cooper (WR) | Crowd #92 | Market #119 | -27 / -27 |
| Josh Downs (WR) | Crowd #95 | Market #117 | -22 / -21 |
| Chris Olave (WR) | Crowd #38 | Market #55 | -17 / -17 |
| Makai Lemon (WR) | Crowd #55 | Market #71 | -16 / -16 |
Is KeepTradeCut accurate?
Broadly yes: KTC top-200 values agreed with real-trade market values at roughly a 0.98 rank correlation once both sides were matched to the same league-format mix. The systematic misses: the crowd under-prices proven veteran quarterbacks (Dak Prescott trades 24 spots above his crowd rank) and over-prices hype-stage young receivers.
How was this study run?
We snapshotted KTC public values on June 11, 2026, matched 199/200 players to Dynasty Dealer values derived from 671,810 real Sleeper trades, and format-matched the comparison: KTC superflex, 1QB, and TE-premium ladders blended to our actual trade mix (73.4% SF, 47.6% TEP). Only findings stable across both a +0.5 and +1.0 TEP assumption are reported. A naive single-ladder comparison falsely flags veteran TEs - a league-format artifact we document in the study.