Most of a dynasty championship is built before the season starts
In 2,971 dynasty championship games, 68.1% of the champion's points came from players already on the roster before the title season. Trades made that season added 14.4%, waivers and free agents 10.9%, and the rookie draft 5.2%.
By Elliot Pollaro · Published 2026-10-06 · Pre-registered (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/F8K59)
Key findings
- Players carried over from earlier seasons supplied 68.1% of a champion's title-game points (95% CI 67.3%–68.8%).
- Trades made during the title season supplied 14.4% (95% CI 13.8%–15.1%), a little more than for runners-up (12.8%) or other playoff teams (12.7%).
- Waivers and free agents supplied 10.9% (95% CI 10.5%–11.4%) and that year's rookie draft 5.2% (95% CI 5.0%–5.5%).
- Replicated in 1,458 title games from 2024: 64.4% of champions' points came from carried-over players and 15.2% from that season's trades. The rookie-draft share was higher that season (11.1%).
What we found
Each started player's points in the championship final are credited to how the team acquired him, using the most recent acquisition on or before that week. Shares are averaged over 2,971 leagues, so each champion counts once.
All three groups drew most of their points from carried-over players: 68.1% for champions, 68.4% for runners-up and 69.7% for other playoff teams. Champions got a little more from that season's trades (14.4%, against 12.8% and 12.7%) and a little less from the rookie draft (5.2%, against 5.9% and 6.2%). These comparisons are descriptive; the intervals are listed in the key findings.
| Team | Carried over | Trades | Waivers / free agents | Rookie draft | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 68.1% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| Runner-up | 68.4% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 1.4% |
| Other playoff teams | 69.7% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 1.5% |
Every playoff game, and first-season leagues
Across all of a champion's playoff games the split barely moves: 70.0% carried over and 14.6% from trades.
In a league's first season nothing can be carried over, so those leagues are shown separately as exploratory. There the startup draft, counted as other, supplies most of the points.
| Team | Carried over | Trades | Waivers / free agents | Rookie draft | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion, every playoff game | 70.0% | 14.6% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| Champion, first-season leagues (exploratory, 1,264) | 0.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 70.5% |
Does it hold in 2024? Yes, with one difference
The same frozen code was run on an independent sample of 1,458 championship games from the 2024 season. Champions again drew most of their points from carried-over players (64.4%, 95% CI 63.3%–65.5%). Trades made that season supplied 15.2%, again a little more than for runners-up (13.7%).
The difference is the rookie draft: 11.1% of champions' points in 2024, against 5.2% in 2025. One plausible reason is the 2024 rookie class, which produced unusually well as rookies, but the study does not test this. The main finding replicated, and the rookie share changes from season to season.
How the study works
The study uses league-seasons with an earlier season on record. In a league's first season nothing can be carried over, and its startup draft is not a rookie draft. Channels: trades; waiver and free-agent pickups; the rookie draft (players with no NFL experience at the draft); carried over (no acquisition that season). Other covers commissioner moves and veterans taken in a draft.
Who is in the sample
Sampled leagues, and how many each eligibility rule excluded.
| Sampled leagues | Count |
|---|---|
| No games played | 446 |
| More than one team without an owner | 137 |
| Not a completed dynasty season (or best ball) | 162 |
| No decided championship | 20 |
| Analyzed | 4,235 |
Limitations
- One game's points are noisy: a single big performance can tilt a team's shares.
- Carried over includes players first acquired by trade or waivers in earlier seasons, so it measures when a player arrived, not how.
- One platform's public leagues only.
Data, method and verification
Public dynasty leagues on a major fantasy football platform, read from the platform’s own public league records (settings, rosters, weekly lineups and scores, transactions, playoff brackets). None of Dynasty Dealer’s player values, trade database or users are used.
The plan was registered before any result was seen: Dynasty League Case Studies: Pre-Registered Analysis Plan (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/F8K59). Every champion's points by channel were reproduced by a second, independently written implementation, and randomly chosen title lineups were checked by hand against the raw league records.
How to cite
Elliot Pollaro (2026). Most of a dynasty championship is built before the season starts. Dynasty Dealer. https://www.dynastydealer.com/case-studies/how-dynasty-championships-are-built. Pre-registration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/F8K59
FAQ
How are dynasty championships built?
In 2,971 dynasty title games, 68.1% of the champion's points came from players already on the roster before the season. That season's trades supplied 14.4%, waivers and free agents 10.9% and the rookie draft 5.2%.
Where does the data come from?
From the public league records of a major fantasy football platform: weekly lineups and points, transactions and drafts. None of Dynasty Dealer's data is used.
Was the analysis planned in advance?
Yes. The plan was registered on OSF before any result was seen (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/F8K59).