Four studies of public dynasty leagues, each planned and registered before any result was seen, and published whatever the result.
In 4,235 public dynasty leagues, the team that made the most trades won the championship 12.4% of the time, against 9.3% by chance. Much of that edge tracks how active a manager is overall: waiver and free-agent moves predict titles even more strongly.
Of 5,938 dynasty teams that finished last, only 32.6% made the playoffs the next season. Within two seasons 58.7% had made it, within three 75.8%, and 21.4% had won a title within three seasons.
In 2,971 dynasty championship games, 68.1% of the champion's points came from players already on the roster before the title season. Trades made that season added 14.4%, waivers and free agents 10.9%, and the rookie draft 5.2%.
In 403,792 superflex lineups across 2,594 leagues, 17.7% had no viable QB in a superflex slot. Compared with the same team's other weeks, those weeks were won 8.8 percentage points less often.