Only 24.9% of fantasy teams that start 0-3 make the playoffs
In 4,288 public redraft leagues from 2025, teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs 24.9% of the time (22.3% in 2024), against a 57.3% playoff share. After an 0-4 start it fell to 16.6%.
By Elliot Pollaro · Published 2026-10-06 · Pre-registered (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB)
Key findings
- Teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs 24.9% of the time (95% CI 23.8%–25.9%), against a 57.3% playoff share, and won the title 2.9% of the time.
- In 12-team leagues with six playoff spots, 0-3 teams got in 17.2% of the time. A 3-0 start led to the playoffs 87.8% of the time.
- After four games, 0-4 teams made the playoffs 16.6% of the time, and 4-0 teams 93.5%.
- Replicated in 2024 (2,585 leagues): 22.3% of 0-3 teams made the playoffs (95% CI 21.1%–23.6%), against a 55.9% playoff share.
Playoff odds by record after three games
The records use head-to-head results only, in 4,288 leagues without median scoring. A team's first three games are its first three scheduled weeks with an opponent.
| Record after 3 games | Teams | Made the playoffs | 95% CI | Won the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 5,950 | 24.9% | 23.8%–25.9% | 2.9% |
| 1-2 | 16,995 | 46.0% | 45.3%–46.7% | 6.7% |
| 2-1 | 17,060 | 69.3% | 68.7%–69.9% | 11.4% |
| 3-0 | 5,925 | 87.8% | 87.0%–88.6% | 17.5% |
After two games
Playoff and title rates by record after two games.
| Record | Teams | Made the playoffs | 95% CI | Won the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 11,410 | 35.9% | 35.0%–36.7% | 4.6% |
| 1-1 | 23,123 | 57.6% | 57.0%–58.1% | 8.9% |
| 2-0 | 11,411 | 78.2% | 77.5%–79.0% | 14.9% |
After four games
Playoff and title rates by record after four games.
| Record | Teams | Made the playoffs | 95% CI | Won the title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 3,290 | 16.6% | 15.3%–17.9% | 2.0% |
| 1-3 | 11,517 | 34.5% | 33.7%–35.3% | 4.7% |
| 2-2 | 16,384 | 58.3% | 57.7%–59.0% | 8.7% |
| 3-1 | 11,357 | 80.0% | 79.3%–80.7% | 13.8% |
| 4-0 | 3,368 | 93.5% | 92.7%–94.3% | 20.3% |
Leagues with median scoring
In median-scoring leagues each week also scores a game against the league median, so a head-to-head start tells less. They are shown separately as a robustness check, and the pattern is the same.
| Record after 3 head-to-head games (median-scoring leagues) | Teams | Made the playoffs | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 351 | 24.2% | 19.9%–28.5% |
| 1-2 | 1,117 | 46.2% | 43.7%–48.7% |
| 2-1 | 1,087 | 64.9% | 62.4%–67.4% |
| 3-0 | 361 | 83.9% | 80.2%–87.4% |
Does it hold in 2024? Yes
The same frozen code was run on an independent sample of 2024 redraft leagues. Teams that started 0-3 made the playoffs 22.3% of the time (95% CI 21.1%–23.6%), against a 55.9% playoff share. After 0-4 it was 14.6%. The finding replicated.
How the study works
Wins and losses come from each week's official scores. Making the playoffs means appearing in the winners bracket. The 95% intervals come from a cluster bootstrap that resamples whole leagues.
Limitations
- A record is partly luck and partly team strength. This study measures where teams ended up, not why.
- Playoff formats differ by league; the baseline uses each league's own playoff share.
- One platform's public redraft leagues.
Data, method and verification
Public redraft (season-long) leagues on a major fantasy football platform, read from the platform’s own public league records (settings, drafts, rosters, weekly lineups and scores, transactions, playoff brackets). None of Dynasty Dealer’s player values, trade database or users are used.
The plan was registered before any result was seen: Redraft League Case Studies: Pre-Registered Analysis Plan (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB). Every team's first results and playoff outcome were reproduced by a second, independently written implementation, and randomly chosen leagues were checked by hand.
Tools from Dynasty Dealer
Dynasty Dealer publishes these studies, which use none of its data. For managers who want to act on the findings, these are its tools:
- Waiver Wire: This week’s best pickups, ranked.
- Fantasy Trade Calculator: Check what a redraft trade is worth for the rest of the season.
- Who Should I Start?: Start/sit help for this week’s lineup.
How to cite
Elliot Pollaro (2026). Only 24.9% of fantasy teams that start 0-3 make the playoffs. Dynasty Dealer. https://www.dynastydealer.com/case-studies/fantasy-football-playoff-odds-after-0-3-start. Pre-registration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB
FAQ
Can you make the fantasy playoffs after starting 0-3?
Sometimes, but rarely. In 4,288 public redraft leagues, 24.9% of 0-3 teams still made the playoffs, against a 57.3% playoff share. In 12-team leagues with six playoff spots it was 17.2%.
What are the playoff odds after an 0-4 start?
In these leagues, 16.6% of 0-4 teams made the playoffs.
Where does the data come from?
From the public league records of a major fantasy football platform: weekly matchups and playoff brackets. None of Dynasty Dealer's data is used.