38.1% of a fantasy champion's title-game points came from players added after the draft
In 4,378 redraft championship games from 2025, players added after the draft supplied 38.1% of the champion's points (32.6% in 2024). Waivers and free agents alone supplied 33.0%, more than the first two rounds of the draft (23.6%).
By Elliot Pollaro · Published 2026-10-06 · Pre-registered (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB)
Key findings
- Players added after the draft supplied 38.1% of a champion's title-game points (95% CI 37.5%–38.7%).
- Waivers and free agents alone supplied 33.0% (95% CI 32.5%–33.5%), more than rounds 1–2 of the draft (23.6%). Trades supplied 5.2%.
- Runners-up looked the same (39.0% from players added after the draft). Other playoff teams relied on pickups less (33.7%).
- Replicated in 2024 (2,645 title games): players added after the draft supplied 32.6% of champions' points, and waivers (26.5%) again beat rounds 1–2 (20.0%).
Where title-game points come from
Each started player's points in the championship final are credited to how the team acquired him, using the most recent acquisition on or before that week. Shares are averaged over 4,378 leagues, so each champion counts once. Champions' drafted points came from rounds 1–2 (23.6%), rounds 3–5 (16.0%), rounds 6–9 (12.4%) and round 10 or later (9.6%).
| Team | Drafted rounds 1–2 | Rounds 3–5 | Rounds 6–9 | Round 10+ | Waivers / free agents | Trades | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion | 23.6% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 33.0% | 5.2% | 0.3% |
| Runner-up | 20.8% | 17.2% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 34.1% | 4.9% | 0.3% |
| Other playoff teams | 22.1% | 19.1% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 28.6% | 5.2% | 0.3% |
The whole playoff run
Across all of a champion's playoff games, players added after the draft supplied 34.4%.
| Team | Drafted rounds 1–2 | Rounds 3–5 | Rounds 6–9 | Round 10+ | Waivers / free agents | Trades | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champion, every playoff game | 23.9% | 18.1% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 28.9% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
Does it hold in 2024? Yes
The same frozen code was run on an independent sample of 2,645 redraft championship games from 2024. Players added after the draft supplied 32.6% of the champion's final-game points (95% CI 31.8%–33.4%). Waivers and free agents supplied 26.5%, again more than rounds 1–2 (20.0%). The finding replicated.
How the study works
Acquisitions are ordered by time: transactions by when they were processed, draft picks at the draft's last pick. A player drafted, dropped and picked up again counts as a pickup. Other covers commissioner moves and players with no acquisition on record.
Limitations
- One game's points are noisy: a single big performance can tilt a team's shares.
- A pickup is credited to the waiver wire even when the same team had drafted the player earlier.
- One platform's public redraft leagues.
Data, method and verification
Public redraft (season-long) leagues on a major fantasy football platform, read from the platform’s own public league records (settings, drafts, rosters, weekly lineups and scores, transactions, playoff brackets). None of Dynasty Dealer’s player values, trade database or users are used.
The plan was registered before any result was seen: Redraft League Case Studies: Pre-Registered Analysis Plan (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB). Every champion's points by channel were reproduced by a second, independently written implementation, and randomly chosen title lineups were checked by hand.
Tools from Dynasty Dealer
Dynasty Dealer publishes these studies, which use none of its data. For managers who want to act on the findings, these are its tools:
- Waiver Wire: This week’s best pickups, ranked.
- Fantasy Trade Calculator: Check what a redraft trade is worth for the rest of the season.
How to cite
Elliot Pollaro (2026). 38.1% of a fantasy champion's title-game points came from players added after the draft. Dynasty Dealer. https://www.dynastydealer.com/case-studies/how-redraft-championships-are-built. Pre-registration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB
FAQ
How important is the waiver wire in fantasy football?
Very. In 4,378 redraft title games, 33.0% of the champion's points came from waiver and free-agent pickups, more than from the first two rounds of the draft (23.6%).
Where does the data come from?
From the public league records of a major fantasy football platform: draft boards, transactions and weekly lineups. None of Dynasty Dealer's data is used.