The No. 1 overall pick has no built-in edge in fantasy football
In 4,379 public redraft leagues from 2025, the first overall pick won the title 10.0% of the time, against 9.5% by chance. In 2,645 leagues from 2024 it won just 4.5%, against 9.3%. The pick is only as good as the player taken: in 2024, 69.9% of drafts took Christian McCaffrey first, and those teams won 3.1% of titles.
By Elliot Pollaro · Published 2026-10-06 · Pre-registered (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB)
Key findings
- 2025: the first overall pick won the title 10.0% of the time (95% CI 9.2%–11.0%), against 9.5% by chance (p = 0.26). The pre-registered primary model found no first-to-last trend: the last slot had 1.07 times the title odds of the first (95% CI 0.98–1.18).
- Not replicated in 2024: the first overall pick won just 4.5% of titles (95% CI 3.7%–5.4%) against 9.3% by chance, and the last slot had 1.96 times the title odds of the first (95% CI 1.74–2.22). Draft-slot effects swing from season to season.
- Exploratory context, added after the results were in: in 2024, 69.9% of drafts took Christian McCaffrey first, and those teams won 3.1% of titles. In 2025, 67.7% took Ja'Marr Chase first, and those teams won 10.5%.
- Secondary (2025): title rates were not equal across slots (p < 0.001 in 12-team leagues), and the middle of the draft was lowest. That pattern did not repeat in 2024, when title rates rose steadily from the first slot to the last.
Title rate by draft slot: 12-team leagues
Across 4,379 leagues and 47,048 teams in 2025, each team's draft slot is the column of its first-round pick on the draft board. If draft position did not matter, every slot in a 12-team league would win 8.3% of titles. In 2025, picks 4 to 7 won 6.7%, 7.1%, 6.2% and 6.8%, the lowest rates on the board; pick 1 won 9.6% and pick 12 won 8.5%. A test of equal rates across all twelve slots gives p < 0.001.
| Draft slot | Titles | Title rate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 164 | 9.6% | 8.3%–11.1% |
| 2 | 165 | 9.7% | 8.3%–11.2% |
| 3 | 151 | 8.9% | 7.6%–10.3% |
| 4 | 114 | 6.7% | 5.6%–8.0% |
| 5 | 120 | 7.1% | 5.9%–8.4% |
| 6 | 106 | 6.2% | 5.1%–7.5% |
| 7 | 116 | 6.8% | 5.7%–8.1% |
| 8 | 139 | 8.2% | 6.9%–9.6% |
| 9 | 173 | 10.2% | 8.8%–11.7% |
| 10 | 159 | 9.3% | 8.0%–10.8% |
| 11 | 150 | 8.8% | 7.5%–10.3% |
| 12 | 145 | 8.5% | 7.2%–9.9% |
10-team leagues
In 10-team leagues every slot would win 10.0% of titles by chance. In 2025 the middle slots won least here too, and the equal-rates test gives p < 0.001.
| Draft slot | Titles | Title rate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 166 | 9.2% | 7.9%–10.7% |
| 2 | 197 | 11.0% | 9.6%–12.5% |
| 3 | 179 | 10.0% | 8.6%–11.4% |
| 4 | 158 | 8.8% | 7.5%–10.2% |
| 5 | 148 | 8.2% | 7.0%–9.6% |
| 6 | 154 | 8.6% | 7.3%–10.0% |
| 7 | 163 | 9.1% | 7.8%–10.5% |
| 8 | 210 | 11.7% | 10.2%–13.3% |
| 9 | 224 | 12.5% | 11.0%–14.1% |
| 10 | 198 | 11.0% | 9.6%–12.6% |
Playoffs versus titles
Draft slot shows up in the regular season, and its direction changes with the season too. In 2025 later slots made the playoffs less often: the last slot had 0.87 times the playoff odds of the first (95% CI 0.82–0.92). In 2024 they made it more often (1.69, 95% CI 1.57–1.82). This is a registered secondary outcome.
The pick is only as good as the player (exploratory)
The most common first overall picks in each season, and how often those teams won the title. This breakdown was added after the results were in, to explain the swing between seasons. It is context, not a pre-registered finding.
| Season | First overall pick | Share of drafts | Drafts | That team won the title | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ja'Marr Chase | 67.7% | 2,966 | 10.5% | 9.4%–11.6% |
| 2025 | Saquon Barkley | 10.3% | 452 | 3.5% | 2.0%–5.7% |
| 2025 | Bijan Robinson | 7.8% | 341 | 20.8% | 16.6%–25.5% |
| 2024 | Christian McCaffrey | 69.9% | 1,849 | 3.1% | 2.3%–4.0% |
| 2024 | Tyreek Hill | 7.4% | 197 | 4.1% | 1.8%–7.8% |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | 6.8% | 179 | 10.6% | 6.5%–16.1% |
Robustness checks
The 2025 primary model and the first-pick headline, run again by league size, scoring format and 1QB leagues.
| Leagues | Count | First pick won | Odds ratio, last slot vs first (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 teams | 1,702 | 9.6% vs 8.3% | 1.02 (0.88–1.19) |
| 10 teams | 1,797 | 9.2% vs 10.0% | 1.22 (1.05–1.41) |
| Full PPR | 3,607 | 10.0% vs 9.6% | 1.09 (0.98–1.21) |
| Half PPR / standard | 772 | 10.1% vs 9.2% | 1.00 (0.80–1.25) |
| 1QB | 3,884 | 10.0% vs 9.5% | 1.10 (0.99–1.21) |
Does it hold in 2024? No
The same frozen code was run on an independent sample from the 2024 season: 2,645 eligible redraft leagues. There the first overall pick won the title 4.5% of the time (95% CI 3.7%–5.4%), against 9.3% by chance (p < 0.001). In the primary model, the last slot had 1.96 times the title odds of the first (95% CI 1.74–2.22).
The 2025 finding of no first-to-last trend therefore did not replicate, and it is reported as not replicated. What held in both seasons is that the first overall pick never beat chance.
How the study works
The study uses completed redraft leagues with 8 to 16 teams and a single snake draft in which every team made exactly one first-round pick. The relative slot runs from 0 (first pick) to 1 (last pick), so leagues of different sizes can be compared.
- Primary analysis: conditional logistic regression with each league as its own stratum, since each league has exactly one champion. The relative draft slot is the predictor.
- Headline statistic: how often the first overall pick won the title. Chance is one divided by the number of teams. The exact 95% interval is Clopper–Pearson, and the p-value is exact (Poisson-binomial).
- Secondary: the title rate of every slot in 10- and 12-team leagues, with a chi-square test of equal rates; playoff qualification and points-for rank by slot.
Limitations
- This is an association. Draft order is usually random, which makes this cleaner than most comparisons, but each season's result depends on how that season's top players performed.
- The two seasons disagree on which slots did best, so no single season's slot ranking should be read as a rule.
- One platform's public redraft leagues. Private leagues, other platforms and auction drafts may differ, and the crawl may over-represent managers who also play dynasty.
Data, method and verification
Public redraft (season-long) leagues on a major fantasy football platform, read from the platform’s own public league records (settings, drafts, rosters, weekly lineups and scores, transactions, playoff brackets). None of Dynasty Dealer’s player values, trade database or users are used.
The plan was registered before any result was seen: Redraft League Case Studies: Pre-Registered Analysis Plan (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB). Every per-league number was reproduced by a second, independently written implementation (another language, no shared code), and randomly chosen leagues were checked by hand against the raw league records.
Tools from Dynasty Dealer
Dynasty Dealer publishes these studies, which use none of its data. For managers who want to act on the findings, these are its tools:
- Rate My Team: Grade your roster against the rest of your league.
How to cite
Elliot Pollaro (2026). The No. 1 overall pick has no built-in edge in fantasy football. Dynasty Dealer. https://www.dynastydealer.com/case-studies/does-draft-position-matter-fantasy-football. Pre-registration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB
FAQ
Does draft position matter in fantasy football?
Not in a fixed way. The first overall pick won 10.0% of 2025 titles (chance: 9.5%) and 4.5% of 2024 titles (chance: 9.3%). Which slots do best changes from season to season with the top players.
What is the best draft position in fantasy football?
No slot was best in both seasons studied. In 2025 the middle of the draft did worst; in 2024 the earliest picks did worst and the latest picks did best.
Where does the data come from?
From the public league records of a major fantasy football platform: draft boards, weekly lineups and playoff brackets. None of Dynasty Dealer's data is used.