Drafting running backs early won more fantasy titles in both seasons studied
In 4,334 public redraft leagues from 2025, teams that took three or more running backs in the first four rounds won the title 14.9% of the time, and Zero RB teams 5.2%. In 2,613 leagues from 2024 it was 13.2% against 6.0%.
By Elliot Pollaro · Published 2026-10-06 · Pre-registered (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB)
Key findings
- In the pre-registered primary model (same league, draft slot held equal), each additional running back taken in rounds 1–4 went with 1.47 times the odds of a title (95% CI 1.40–1.53).
- Robust RB teams (three or more RBs in rounds 1–4) won 14.9% of the time (95% CI 13.5%–16.3%). Zero RB teams won 5.2% (95% CI 4.3%–6.1%). Hero RB and Balanced teams won 9.2% and 9.2%.
- Exploratory: in 1QB leagues, taking a QB in rounds 1–3 went with 0.58 times the odds of a title in 2025 and 0.74 in 2024. An early TE helped in 2025 (1.27) and hurt in 2024 (0.75).
- Replicated in 2024 (2,613 leagues): each early running back went with 1.30 times the odds of a title (95% CI 1.23–1.38). Zero RB teams won 6.0%, and Hero RB teams 5.6%.
Title rates by draft strategy
Each team's first four picks define its strategy:
Zero RB: no running back in rounds 1–4 (5.3% of teams). Hero RB: a running back in round 1 and none in rounds 2–4 (14.0%). Robust RB: three or more running backs in rounds 1–4 (5.7%). Balanced: everyone else (75.1%). The definitions were fixed in the plan before any result was seen.
| Strategy | Teams | Titles | Title rate | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero RB | 2,450 | 127 | 5.2% | 4.3%–6.1% |
| Hero RB | 6,511 | 596 | 9.2% | 8.5%–9.9% |
| Robust RB | 2,638 | 392 | 14.9% | 13.5%–16.3% |
| Balanced | 34,937 | 3,219 | 9.2% | 8.9%–9.5% |
Same league, same draft slot
Strategies are compared only within each league, with draft slot held equal, so league settings and draft position drop out. Against Balanced drafts, Zero RB had 0.53 times the title odds (95% CI 0.44–0.64) and Robust RB 1.70 times (95% CI 1.52–1.91).
| Strategy vs Balanced (same league, draft slot held equal) | Odds ratio (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Zero RB | 0.53 (0.44–0.64) |
| Hero RB | 1.01 (0.92–1.10) |
| Robust RB | 1.70 (1.52–1.91) |
Robustness checks
The primary model gives almost the same answer in 1QB leagues, full-PPR leagues and 12-team leagues.
| Leagues | Count | Odds ratio per early RB (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1QB | 3,847 | 1.48 (1.41–1.55) |
| Full PPR | 3,572 | 1.45 (1.38–1.53) |
| 12 teams | 1,678 | 1.50 (1.40–1.62) |
Does it hold in 2024? Yes
The same frozen code was run on an independent sample of 2,613 redraft leagues from 2024. Each early running back again went with higher title odds: 1.30 times per running back (95% CI 1.23–1.38). Robust RB teams won 13.2%, Balanced 9.9%, Zero RB 6.0% and Hero RB 5.6%. The primary finding replicated.
How the study works
Positions are as recorded on each pick at the time of the draft. The primary exposure is the number of running backs a team drafted in rounds 1–4, from 0 to 4.
Limitations
- Draft strategy is chosen, not assigned, so the managers who pick each strategy may differ in other ways.
- Each season's titles depend on that season's players. The pattern held in both 2025 and 2024, but other seasons may differ.
- Running-back value depends on scoring; the full-PPR check addresses part of this.
- One platform's public redraft leagues.
Data, method and verification
Public redraft (season-long) leagues on a major fantasy football platform, read from the platform’s own public league records (settings, drafts, rosters, weekly lineups and scores, transactions, playoff brackets). None of Dynasty Dealer’s player values, trade database or users are used.
The plan was registered before any result was seen: Redraft League Case Studies: Pre-Registered Analysis Plan (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB). Every team's early-round picks and strategy were reproduced by a second, independently written implementation, and randomly chosen drafts were checked by hand.
Tools from Dynasty Dealer
Dynasty Dealer publishes these studies, which use none of its data. For managers who want to act on the findings, these are its tools:
- Fantasy Trade Calculator: Check what a redraft trade is worth for the rest of the season.
- Rate My Team: Grade your roster against the rest of your league.
How to cite
Elliot Pollaro (2026). Drafting running backs early won more fantasy titles in both seasons studied. Dynasty Dealer. https://www.dynastydealer.com/case-studies/zero-rb-vs-rb-heavy-drafts. Pre-registration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XZ7NB
FAQ
Does Zero RB work in fantasy football?
Not in these leagues. Zero RB teams won 5.2% of 2025 titles and 6.0% of 2024 titles, against 14.9% and 13.2% for RB-heavy drafts. In the pre-registered model, each early running back went with 1.47 times the odds of a title in 2025 and 1.30 times in 2024.
Should you draft a quarterback early in a 1QB league?
In this study, no (exploratory): taking a QB in rounds 1–3 in 1QB leagues went with 0.58 times the odds of a title.
Where does the data come from?
From the public league records of a major fantasy football platform: draft boards and playoff brackets. None of Dynasty Dealer's data is used.