Who Should I Start? Week 4 Start/Sit Tool
Updated Oct 1, 12:26 PM ET · NFL Week 4
Pick two to four players. Each gets this week’s projection: his rest-of-season scoring rate blended with his last three games, adjusted for how many fantasy points the opponent allows to his position, and for his chance of playing. The tool starts the highest projection and tells you whether it’s a clear call, a lean or a coin flip.
Week 4 projections (PPR, 1QB)
| Player | Pos | Status | Matchup | Projection | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB · DET | — | @ CAR (+20%) | 30.8 | 23.5–39.9 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · ATL | — | @ NO (+14%) | 26.1 | 15.7–39.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · SEA | — | vs LAC (+1%) | 24.4 | 17.9–32.6 |
| Josh Allen | QB · BUF | — | vs NE (-12%) | 22.5 | 12.7–34.8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · SF | — | vs DEN (+17%) | 22.2 | 18.4–27 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR · DAL | — | @ HOU (+11%) | 21.6 | 13.3–32 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · SF | — | vs DEN (-2%) | 21.2 | 17–26.4 |
| Bryce Young | QB · CAR | — | vs DET (+20%) | 21.2 | 14.1–30.2 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · DAL | — | @ HOU (+7%) | 20.6 | 14.3–28.5 |
| Jared Goff | QB · DET | — | @ CAR (+4%) | 20.4 | 14.8–27.5 |
| Chris Olave | WR · NO | — | vs ATL (+9%) | 20.2 | 16.8–24.5 |
| Tyler Shough | QB · NO | — | vs ATL (+2%) | 20.2 | 19.6–20.9 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · BAL | — | vs TEN (+0%) | 19.8 | 12.4–28.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB · KC | — | @ LV (-3%) | 19.4 | 14.2–26 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB · KC | — | @ LV (-7%) | 19.3 | 13.9–26.1 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB · WAS | — | vs IND (+12%) | 19.2 | 14.4–25.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · LAR | — | @ PHI (+9%) | 18.9 | 10.6–29.4 |
| Caleb Williams | QB · CHI | — | vs NYJ (-6%) | 18.8 | 13.2–25.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB · PHI | — | vs LAR (-3%) | 17.6 | 12.7–23.8 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR · DET | — | @ CAR (-12%) | 17.5 | 8–29.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE · ARI | — | @ NYG (-3%) | 17.4 | 14–21.6 |
| Davante Adams | WR · LAR | — | @ PHI (+5%) | 17.4 | 9.4–27.3 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB · LV | — | vs KC (-3%) | 17.2 | 8.7–27.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · JAX | — | @ CIN (+0%) | 17.2 | 9.1–27.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · BAL | — | vs TEN (-17%) | 17.1 | 13–22.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · CHI | — | vs NYJ (+6%) | 17 | 9.3–26.6 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · LAR | — | @ PHI (+5%) | 16.9 | 12.4–22.5 |
| James Cook | RB · BUF | — | vs NE (+0%) | 16.8 | 12–22.7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR · CIN | — | vs JAX (-2%) | 16.7 | 8.5–26.9 |
| Zay Flowers | WR · BAL | — | vs TEN (+1%) | 16.4 | 11.8–22 |
| Bucky Irving | RB · TB | — | vs GB (+20%) | 16.1 | 11.1–22.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · HOU | — | vs DAL (+16%) | 16 | 13.6–18.9 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB · IND | — | @ WAS (-17%) | 15.9 | 7.5–26.5 |
| Christian Watson | WR · GB | — | @ TB (-6%) | 15.7 | 8.2–25 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · KC | — | @ LV (+20%) | 15.6 | 9.4–23.4 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · LAR | — | @ PHI (-8%) | 15.5 | 12.6–19 |
| Joe Burrow | QB · CIN | — | vs JAX (-15%) | 15.3 | 11.8–19.7 |
| Jalen Coker | WR · CAR | — | vs DET (+10%) | 15.2 | 8.6–23.5 |
| Bo Nix | QB · DEN | — | @ SF (-7%) | 15.2 | 7.7–24.5 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · ARI | — | @ NYG (+2%) | 15.1 | 9.3–22.3 |
Biggest matchup boosts — Week 4
| Player | Pos | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB · TB | vs GB (+20%) | 16.1 |
| Tyler Warren | TE · IND | @ WAS (+20%) | 14.9 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · KC | @ LV (+20%) | 15.6 |
| Bryce Young | QB · CAR | vs DET (+20%) | 21.2 |
| Daniel Jones | QB · IND | @ WAS (+20%) | 12.9 |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB · TB | vs GB (+20%) | 9.3 |
Toughest matchups — Week 4
| Player | Pos | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | TE · BUF | vs NE (-20%) | 10 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · BAL | vs TEN (-20%) | 7.4 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · CHI | vs NYJ (-20%) | 6 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB · LV | vs KC (-20%) | 9.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE · PHI | vs LAR (-19%) | 8.5 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · DAL | @ HOU (-18%) | 12.2 |
How each start/sit call is made
Projection = 75 percent of the player’s rest-of-season scoring rate plus 25 percent of his last three games, multiplied by a matchup factor and by his chance of playing.
The matchup factor compares the fantasy points an opponent has allowed per game to the position with the league average, pulled toward average early in the season when only a few games are in, and capped at ±20 percent.
Chance of playing comes from the official injury report (Out 0 percent, Doubtful 25, Questionable 85) and reserve lists; a bye is zero. Floor and ceiling come from how much the player’s weekly scores have varied. A margin of 4 points or more is a clear call; under 1.5 is a coin flip.
This weekly tool is separate from Dynasty Dealer’s community Start/Sit/Drop votes, which feed dynasty player values rather than weekly lineup advice.
What this tool doesn’t know
- It doesn’t see weather, betting lines or Sunday inactives.
- Early in the season the matchup factor rests on only a few games.
Frequently asked questions
Who should I start this week?
Add the players you’re deciding between and start the one with the higher projection. If the tool calls it a coin flip, lean on the higher floor in a must-win week and the higher ceiling when you need a big score.
Is this start/sit tool free?
Yes — comparisons are free and need no account.
Does it work for PPR, half-PPR and Superflex?
Yes. Pick your scoring and 1QB or Superflex at the top; projections and values switch to that format.
Should I bench a stud in a bad matchup?
Rarely. The matchup factor is capped at 20 percent either way, so a matchup alone never drops a 20-point projection below 16; a stud usually still outscores a lesser player with a good matchup.
More free tools: Waiver Wire Pickups · Redraft Trade Calculator · Trade Value Chart (Redraft) · Rate My Team
Built and maintained by Elliot Pollaro, founder of Dynasty Dealer.
Current-season stats, rosters, injury reports and snap counts: nflverse (CC-BY 4.0). Preseason projections and values: Dynasty Dealer.